BTC/USD
$77,102.51
EMA 3/15 + 25d hold — trend following
Updated: 2026-08-22 23:58 UTC
Current Regime
Uptrend
Price
$77,102.51
ADX
28.6 (strong > 25)
Streak
4 days
Markov Regime Model
Dual-confirmation: 20-day return direction + ATR volatility filter
Markov Bull
--
Markov Sideways
--
Markov Bear
--
Combined
--
Loading Markov analysis...
Regime Distribution
1000 days (Jan 2020 → Jun 2026)
Uptrend
390 (39%)
Downtrend
215 (21%)
Crash Avoid
147 (14%)
Caution
207 (20%)
Choppy
41 (4%)
Price by Regime
Logarithmic BTC/USD with color-coded regime segments
Regime Timeline
Chronological regime transitions
Methodology
Regime is classified using two independent models:
- Indicator Engine — EMA crossover (3/15/50), ADX trend strength, ATR volatility, and 20-day returns. Outputs 5 regimes: uptrend, downtrend, crash_avoid, caution, choppy.
- Markov Engine — 20-day rolling return direction (bull/sideways/bear) combined with ATR volatility expansion filter. Requires both signals to agree for "trending" classification.
When both models agree, confidence is high. When they diverge (e.g., indicators say downtrend but Markov says choppy with contracting volatility), it signals a potential transition phase — the market may be losing momentum.
The combined regime distinguishes uptrend vs downtrend explicitly. Hysteresis requires 2 consecutive 4-hour checks (8h total) before switching.